(Particular observe – I hadn’t deliberate to publish this text to subscribers I despatched as a part of my twice-weekly subscription service ($34.95 per thirty days), however a most trusted advisor, Jim Cook dinner from Funding Rarities, Inc., strongly recommended I achieve this. Since Cook dinner has by no means failed to offer strong recommendation for greater than 20 years, I can’t solid his recommendation apart).
For the primary holiday-shortened buying and selling week of the New 12 months, gold turned in a really robust efficiency, ending greater by $40 (2.2%), whereas a late day rally yesterday solely resulted in silver narrowing its losses for the week to 18 cents (-0.7%). Because of silver’s excessive relative underperformance, the silver/gold worth ratio widened out by simply over two full factors to 78 to 1.
So far as making an attempt to clarify the surge in gold costs and silver’s failure to maintain up over these previous few days, let’s begin with the plain, particularly, nobody was promoting long-tern bodily silver to transform to gold. Gold and silver costs are set by manipulative paper positioning on the COMEX, so look no additional for explanations. As I’ve warned of late, we should gird ourselves for deliberate manipulative smack downs, resembling seen this week in silver (full with middle-of-the-night non-economic worth stabs to the draw back).
Nonetheless, this takes nothing away from the surge in gold costs, the place the latest adjustments in COMEX market construction and the still-extraordinary developments within the Financial institution Participation report, now together with yesterday’s new launch for positions held by way of Jan 3, nonetheless level to a “sea change” within the positioning of the banks. The actual fact is that the positioning on the COMEX was extra bullish in gold than in silver.
Importantly, though gold closed at six-month worth highs on first day of buying and selling of the brand new 12 months and the cutoff day for yesterday’s COT and Financial institution Participation experiences, the deterioration (managed cash shopping for and business promoting) feared didn’t materialize and, primarily, didn’t exist in any respect in silver. Gold is now greater by $250 from the lows of early November and one other $200 from right here will put us at all-time highs and it’s nonetheless my impression that many don’t belief the present transfer greater (climbing a wall of fear). Identical with silver. That’s music to a contrarian’s ears.
Let me run by way of the standard weekly format earlier than turning consideration to yesterday’s COT and Financial institution Participation experiences. I did get an electronic mail from a subscriber shortly after the experiences have been revealed who requested, not concerning the particulars of the Financial institution Participation report, which he knew I might cowl right now, however simply to provide him a “thumbs up” or “thumbs down” on whether or not the report coincided with my latest conclusion of a severe and extremely encouraging change in financial institution shorting. My reply to Greg was “thumbs up”.
The turnover or bodily motion of metallic both introduced into or faraway from the COMEX-approved silver warehouses snapped again sharply from final week’s subdued motion, regardless of this being one other 4-day work week. This week, some 7.8 million ozwere bodily moved and complete COMEX silver warehouse holdings rose by 1.6 million ozto 300.6 million oz. Holdings within the JPMorgan COMEX warehouse rose by a much-sharper 3.4 million ozto 152.8 million oz.
I do know I’ve devoted a lot time discussing the extraordinary bodily motion of silver within the COMEX warehouses, each not too long ago and over the previous close to 12 years, however I additionally know this is a matter not extensively appreciated. Reality be informed, I depend that as a private failure of me not having the ability to talk a difficulty that I’ve come to consider is each bit as vital as as to whether the massive banks step apart in including aggressively to quick positions ought to this rally proceed.
One factor that I consider is close to universally-accepted by most proponents of silver is that when the bodily scarcity reaches the purpose the place its existence can not be hidden or managed, that would be the level at which costs can not be contained by manipulative paper positioning on the COMEX, as has occurred for 40 years. It has not too long ago occurred to me that the terribly giant COMEX silver warehouse stock turnover – a phenomenon that exists in no different commodity – is the purest signal potential that the bodily scarcity could be very shut at hand and it frustrates the heck out of me that I’ve been unable to convey that.
My expensive departed pal and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, at all times referred so far because the “second of true”, as the understanding of too low of a worth not inflicting a bodily scarcity in some unspecified time in the future was not possible. But, other than that fundamental fact, there was little to go on as indicating how shut we may be to that second. The beginning of the extremely uncommon bodily motion of silver into and out from the COMEX warehouses started near 12 years in the past, virtually exactly on the time Izzy not adopted silver, so I’ve been left to ponder the which means of the bodily motion with out the good thing about my mentor’s knowledge and enter.
That mentioned, let me state it this manner – I consider the extraordinary bodily turnover within the COMEX silver warehouses is the surest potential signal anybody may ever get prematurely that the bodily scarcity is shut at hand. I do know that it has been 12 years since this bodily motion started, so who the heck am I to counsel it’s signaling we’re near the purpose the place the silver scarcity will quickly be extremely seen and unmanageable? I’d reply that, taken along with all of the extraordinary developments over this time, from JPMorgan accumulating a billion ozsilver and 30 million oz (possibly extra) gold bodily place, to then settling with the DOJ and double crossing its fellow massive COMEX shorts, to extra issues than I can recite right here. It’s the totality of the problems.
I might level out that it has been practically three months the place complete COMEX silver warehouse inventories, after declining sharply over the 2 prior years (by as a lot as 100 million oz), have now hovered across the 300 million ozlevel. But, the turnover persists. With out getting too deep into the weeds, this means to me that we could also be truly on the level the place solely new stuff introduced in can fulfill new calls for for bodily silver – and the place the silver within the warehouses are owned by these not occupied with promoting. Sure, that is very speculative on my half and it may simply end up we’re not as shut as I counsel. However would anybody desire I disguise my ideas and solely after the bodily silver scarcity turns into extremely seen, then say it was on my thoughts?
The flows of bodily metallic continued to be regular within the gold ETFs, and this week, flows of bodily metallic into SLV, the massive silver ETF, turned optimistic, to the tune of 1.5 million oz, on account of final evening’s close to 3 million ozdeposit. Even when the deposit was designed to scale back the quick place , as I believe, it gained’t be mirrored in Wednesday’s new quick report, however I gained’t have the ability to focus on it till the following weekly evaluate (because the report comes out late that day). Ought to there be a pointy improve within the quick place on SLV, I do plan to complain anew to the SEC and BlackRock.
Turning to yesterday’s experiences, let me cope with the Commitments of Merchants (COT) report first. Since gold did shut at its highest worth level in six months on the cutoff on heavy buying and selling quantity (silver surged initially that day, however offered off fairly sharply into the shut), it was not unreasonable to concern important deterioration. Fortuitously, that didn’t transform the case.
In COMEX gold futures, the commercials elevated their complete internet quick place by 6200 contracts to 160,000 contracts. Whereas that is the most important complete business quick place in six months, it nonetheless doesn’t look extreme. There’s no manner gold may rise greater than $200 with out market construction deterioration, very similar to there’s no option to make an omelet with out cracking some eggs. Furthermore, the adjustments by business classes weren’t alarming.
The 4 greatest business shorts added 2700 new shorts to a brief place now at 130,324 contracts (13 million oz), and the following largest 5 via 8 shorts added 800 extra shorts, bringing the massive 8 quick place to 211,215 contracts (21.1 million oz). The raptors (the smaller commercials aside from the massive 8) offered off 2700 lengthy contracts, decreasing their internet lengthy place to 51,200 contracts – nonetheless a really giant internet lengthy place.
On the purchase aspect of gold, the managed cash merchants have been internet consumers of 3704 contracts, consisting of the acquisition of 2157 new longs and the buyback and protecting of 1547 shorts. Given the value motion, the managed cash shopping for was fairly muted and provides to my earlier level of how unloved or disbelieved within the rally in gold has been up to now. The web managed cash lengthy place is now 54,581 contracts (109,140 longs versus 54,559 shorts), up from the web quick place of some months again, however nowhere close to near the dangerously-large internet lengthy positions of the previous.
I’m beginning to suppose, if the previous massive COMEX business shorts (the banks) are as devious as I consider them to be and so they proceed to chorus from including aggressively to quick positions, other than continued raptor lengthy liquidation, that the massive managed cash longs might wind up lacking a significant portion of an enormous gold rally.
Explaining the distinction between what the business offered and the managed cash merchants purchased was some internet shopping for by the opposite giant reporting merchants and the smaller non-reporting merchants – however remember the fact that there wasn’t important positioning on this report.
In COMEX silver futures, the commercials elevated their complete internet quick place by a scant 1300 contracts, to 44,200 contracts. Really, there was no new shorting, because the raptors offered off 1300 longs, in decreasing their internet lengthy place to 22,100 contracts. The 4 massive silver shorts purchased again 100 shorts and held 44,085 shorts (220 million oz), whereas the massive 5 via 8 added 100 shorts, leaving the massive 8 quick place unchanged at 66,259 contracts (331 million oz). On this case, watching paint dry was good.
The managed cash merchants in silver truly offered 1039 internet contracts, consisting of the acquisition of 1907 new longs and the brand new quick sale of 2946 contracts. The web managed cash lengthy place contracted a bit to 27,777 contracts (46,929 longs versus 19,152 shorts) – at all times excellent news. Each the opposite giant reporting merchants and smaller non-reporting merchants have been internet consumers, largely by way of quick protecting.
Turning to the brand new Financial institution Participation report, this month’s report featured a reversal of types from the prior report, in that the relative lack of financial institution promoting was extra pronounced in silver, whereas it was in gold within the prior report. From Dec 6 to Jan 3, whereas the full business internet quick place in gold elevated by roughly 30,000 contracts, the banks within the BPR solely accounted for 13,000 contracts of the promoting, with non-banks (a wide range of swap sellers), accounted for the steadiness of 17,000 contracts. A s a reminder, the value of gold rose about $80 over this time.
Wanting again from the BPR as of Nov 1, the full business internet quick place in gold elevated by 85,000 contracts to Jan 3, as gold costs rose by $200, and the portion of complete business promoting by banks was 30,000 contracts, in comparison with non-bank business promoting of 55,000 contracts. That is concerning the smallest financial institution promoting in reminiscence.
Thus, the “thumbs up” so far as my tentative conclusion of a sea change in financial institution shorting. In fact, I suppose the banks may come onto the quick aspect at greater costs, so nothing is written in stone at this level. However let me run by way of silver first, earlier than I supply yet one more speculative conclusion worthy of the Twilight Zone.
From Dec 6 to Jan 3, the full business internet quick place in COMEX silver elevated by 12,000 contracts, as costs rose greater than $2. But, the banks accounted for lower than 2000 contracts of that promoting. From Nov 1 to Jan 3, the full business quick place in COMEX silver elevated by 34,000 contracts on a rally of greater than $5. But the banks solely accounted for little greater than 10,000 contracts of the promoting, with non-bank commercials (swap sellers) making up the huge bulk of business promoting. Uncommon, to say the least, and so far, very a lot in sticking to my sea change premise.
Having acknowledged that each one of this might be however a quick respite from the 40-year COMEX worth manipulation, ought to the banks return to the quick aspect in an aggressive method, let me lay out a really totally different state of affairs that may border on fantasy to many. Right here, I’ve to repeat that after I take a look at silver (and gold), I contemplate completely not one of the issues that many put into their combine – issues like inflation, rates of interest, the economic system, the inventory market, the actual property market, the destiny of the continuing horrific battle in Ukraine or the political circus I can’t appear to flee.
Don’t take me fallacious, all these items are vital to me (and everybody else) to a point as a citizen and fellow traveler of this journey we’re all on. However even when I, or anybody may predict the course of inflation, rates of interest, and so forth., over the following 12 months or so, in the case of silver and gold, none of these items matter within the least. One doesn’t need to look additional than the file adjustments in inflation and rates of interest this 12 months in comparison with flat gold and silver efficiency. I’ve spent an excessive amount of of my life studying all these items don’t quantity to squat in making any distinction to the value of silver and gold. The one factor that issues is the state of the COMEX worth manipulation; as in, does it proceed or not.
I’ve laid out the essential issue of will the massive commercials add aggressively to quick positions on rallies too many instances (and being fallacious in guessing that they gained’t), in order that I don’t want to clarify why I’m so excited concerning the latest proof within the COT and Financial institution Participation experiences that the banks have been hanging again in including shorts so far. I additional consider they could have superb purpose for hanging again. I feel it’s instantly related to unimaginable bodily turnover within the COMEX silver warehouses, regardless of my lack of ability to convey convincingly my argument.
I consider the many years of silver worth suppression (nowhere close to as evident in gold or another commodity) has achieved one of many strongest dictates of the regulation of provide and demand, particularly, in any consumable commodity, any extended and synthetic worth suppression should ultimately finish in a bodily scarcity or the lack of present provide to fulfill present demand. That is extra sacrosanct and immutable than any of the teachings of the world’s nice religions. The issue in silver, versus another commodity, is that big stockpiles of metallic accrued over time; a lot in order that it was not possible to know prematurely how a lot silver may come to market earlier than present obtainable inventories may not complement present manufacturing. Let’s face it – it’s fairly troublesome to foretell the precise timing of a seminal occasion occurring for the very first time.
That’s the actual message of the unprecedented bodily turnover within the COMEX silver warehouses – it has persevered and intensified exactly as the power to attract from present inventories has been steadily depleted. Nobody would argue that when the exact second of fact arrives and no extra important bodily portions can be found at present costs – no identified drive on the earth (besides maybe JPMorgan) – will probably be able to offering bodily silver – no authorities or business entity. And whereas JPM could also be able to forestalling the bodily crunch by sacrificing its masterfully-acquired bodily hoard, that’s about as removed from the way it usually rolls, as is feasible.
Since these accountable for operating the continuing huge bodily turnover within the COMEX silver warehouses are exactly the exact same banks on the COMEX which have come to be leery of including new quick positions as aggressively as previously and since these guys don’t want me to clarify to them how essential the bodily state of affairs in silver has grow to be, there would seem to a different connection arduous to disclaim. Actually, these accountable for the bodily silver turnover within the COMEX warehouses know in addition to anybody that when the silver scarcity abruptly hits with a drive intensified by a 40-year violation of the regulation of provide and demand, there will probably be little anybody can do to forestall a worth explosion of the ages.
Maybe essentially the most singular spectacular achievement of the 12-year intense bodily motion within the COMEX silver warehouses is that it has succeeded in protecting the world’s industrial silver customers and fabricators fully-supplied on this just-in-time world. The minute the on-time silver deliveries hit a snag, some customers, in searching for to avert future supply delays, will transfer to order further or stockpile silver. This may set off a series response. The miracle is that it hasn’t occurred so far. Some might argue that it means it would by no means occur, however as provide chain difficulties have developed in all kinds of assorted objects over the previous couple of years, it appears to ensure a silver provide snag in some unspecified time in the future – the distinction being that any such “minor” snag in silver ought to quickly escalate into a person towards man free for all.
The one factor these banks, together with JPMorgan, can probably do when the bodily silver storm hits is to batten down the hatches, with everybody searching for shelter, as making an attempt to conquer a bodily scarcity 40 years within the making is just not potential. And that, my buddies, is what I feel is behind the sudden reluctance of the banks which have at all times been most snug on the quick aspect, to be as closely quick as they’ve previously. That is additionally very a lot consistent with the large positioning adjustments of the previous 12 months and nearly all the pieces vital over the many years.
Look, I’m not making an attempt to be a wise-guy with all of the solutions who may even have the ability to pinpoint precisely the exact second of liftoff. As at all times, I’m simply making an attempt to make sense out of verifiable public information. On the similar time, it’s high-time somebody stands as much as admit that the unprecedented bodily turnover within the COMEX silver warehouses is so uncommon that ignoring it’s not a reliable choice if one professes to have an curiosity in silver.
January 7, 2023